2026 NFL Offseason: The Biggest X-Factor For Every NFC Team Next Season

There are NFL players across the league who — whether they’re healthy again, live up to the hype or take significant steps forward in their production — can drastically alter the trajectory of their teams' 2026 season. 

Who are those players in the NFC? Here are my biggest X-factors for every team in the conference (my AFC selections are here): 

NFC East

In the wake of trading Micah Parsons, pass rushing was one of the Cowboys’ biggest struggles last season. The acquisition of Rashan Gary gives Dallas a dependable veteran presence and first-round rookie Malachi Lawrence may one day become a No. 1-caliber edge rusher, but Ezeiruaku’s Year 2 development could make the biggest immediate impact on a defense that must be better in 2026. As a second-round rookie last season, Ezeiruaku had two sacks, 40 tackles and 12 QB hits.

Nabers tore his ACL during quarterback Jaxson Dart’s first career start last September. And after clean-up surgery in the spring to remove scar tissue, the third-year receiver's status remains uncertain for the start of the season. Nabers’ availability and production are integral to Dart’s development as New York’s hopeful franchise quarterback. 

With A.J. Brown traded to the New England Patriots, Smith is now the Eagles’ WR1. That will mean more matchups with No. 1 cornerbacks in 2026 for the former Alabama star. If Smith steps up, Philadelphia has one less thing to worry about offensively in 2026. 

After putting together one of the best rookie quarterback seasons in league history in 2024, Daniels was limited to seven games last season due to injury. If the former No. 2 overall pick is healthy, the Commanders could be right back in NFC contention. 

NFC North

The Bears didn’t address their pass rush in a meaningful way in free agency or the draft. That means Booker, a fifth-round pick in 2024 who had a career-high 4.5 sacks last season, will need to take another step forward at edge rusher opposite Montez Sweat. 

With Al-Quadin Muhammad (11 sacks last season) walking in free agency, the Lions must find a dependable edge rusher opposite star Aidan Hutchinson. Moore, the 44th overall pick in April’s draft, is a strong candidate as a high second-round pick. 

With Parsons (ACL) expected to be sidelined to start the season and Gary traded to the Cowboys, the Packers need Van Ness — a former first-round pick — to step up as a pass rusher. When Parsons returns, his pairing with a productive Van Ness could give the Packers a championship-caliber defense. 

Murray is the favorite to win the Vikings’ quarterback job over former first-round pick J.J. McCarthy. Given Minnesota’s talent on offense, it could be a dark-horse contender in a tough NFC North and the NFC at large if Murray returns to Pro Bowl form. 

NFC South

With fellow second-year pro James Pearce Jr. facing a potential suspension, Walker’s growth will be paramount for DC Jeff Ulbrich’s defense in 2026. Walker's 5.5 sacks last season ranked third on the team. 

Brooks, a 2024 second-round pick, missed the entire 2025 season due to an ACL tear. If he's healthy and lives up to his draft slot, it would take a tremendous amount of pressure off Bryce Young in a pivotal year for the quarterback and the Panthers. There’s a void in Carolina’s backfield after the free-agent departure of Rico Dowdle, who rushed for more than 1,000 yards last season. 

No Saints player last season reached 500 rushing yards. If Etienne can play to the level we saw throughout his Jaguars career (three 1,000-yard rushing seasons in four years), it would help the development of promising second-year quarterback Tyler Shough. 

With franchise legend Mike Evans gone, Egbuka steps into an even larger spotlight as the Bucs’ No. 1 receiver. His success will be integral to Tampa returning to the playoffs in 2026. 

NFC West

Entering his third year, Harrison has yet to live up to the expectations that came with being the fourth overall pick in 2024. If he puts it all together in 2026, it could open up new coach Mike LaFleur’s offense, giving Arizona another top-end pass-catcher — both tight end Trey McBride and receiver Michael Wilson had more than 1,000 yards receiving last season — and lightening the box for rookie running back Jeremiyah Love, the No. 4 overall pick. 

When opposing offenses look to pass against the Rams’ Myles Garrett-led defense, they’ll likely look to throw away from star cornerback Trent McDuffie, twice an All-Pro selection. So if Watson can be a big-time playmaker on the opposite side of the field, L.A. could have a truly dominant defense.  

Greenlaw was the heartbeat of the Niners in his first stint with the team from 2019-24. After a year in Denver, he returns to San Francisco as the expected starter at weakside linebacker. In Greenlaw’s first six seasons with San Francisco, the defense played significantly better with him on the field. Overall, including the playoffs, the 49ers went 52-24 when Greenlaw played. 

Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III is now with the Chiefs, while Zach Charbonnet is recovering from a torn ACL suffered in the NFC divisional round. It’s paramount that Price, the Seahawks’ top pick, is an RB1-caliber player from Day 1, so Seattle’s offense doesn’t lose a step. 

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