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Picks for 2026 U.S. Open favorites to win ahead of the year's third major at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
Jun 12, 2026 at 7:32 am ET • 4 min read
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Long Island, N.Y., will host the 2026 U.S Open, beginning on Thursday, June 18. It marks the sixth time the links course will host the major, with Brooks Koepka (2018) prevailing the last time the U.S. Open headed to Shinnecock. Koepka is one of a dozen past champions in the U.S. Open 2026 field, joining the likes of Bryson DeChambeau, Jon Rahm, Matt Fitzpatrick and Rory McIlroy.
However, someone who has yet to win this major tops the 2026 U.S. Open odds in Scottie Scheffler (+550). McIlroy (+1000) is the only other golfer shorter than +1400 to utilize in PGA bets as he looks to become the 12th golfer with seven major titles. Other contenders include Rahm (+1400), Cameron Young (+2000) and Ludvig Aberg (+2000). Before locking in any 2026 U.S. Open picks, be sure to see the 2026 U.S. Open predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
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SportsLine's proprietary golf betting model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, simulates every PGA Tour event 10,000 times. This same model has also nailed a whopping 17 majors entering the weekend, including the 2026 Masters -- its fifth Masters in a row -- as well as last year's PGA Championship and Open Championship.
Now that the 2026 U.S. Open field is locked in, the model simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.
2026 U.S. Open predictions for Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Brooks Koepka
One pick from the model for the U.S. Open 2026: Brooks Koepka (+2200), who won the 2018 U.S. Open at Shinnecock and is among the 10 golfers with the shortest odds this year, stumbles big time and doesn't even finish in the top 25. Koepka's return season on the PGA Tour has been uneven, with just one top 10 despite playing against weaker fields as he doesn't qualify for signature events. He's also struggled both off the tee and on the green as he ranks outside the top 100 tour golfers in both driving accuracy percentage and strokes gained: putting.
Koepka's won five majors, but that seems like lifetimes ago based off his recent performances. He doesn't have a single top 10 over his last 12 major tournament starts. That includes seven finishes outside the top 40, compared to just three finishes inside the top 25. The model doesn't forecast Koepka being close to contending for another major win this week, making him one to avoid with U.S. Open bets.
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The model has also locked in its projection for Scheffler (+550) who, with a victory, would become the seventh man in the modern era to complete the Career Grand Slam. His best finish at this major was a runner-up in 2022, as he's placed in the top 7 in four of his last five U.S. Open starts. Scheffler has also finished in the top 7 in six of his last seven major tournaments but hasn't been his typical dominant self in 2026.
After having at least six wins in both 2024 and 2025, Scheffler has just one victory this year. Still though, he's been in contention throughout the year as half of his 12 events have resulted in top-3 finishes. Scheffler has never competed at Shinnecock before, and the last time he played a course for the first time at a major, he placed 14th at this year's PGA Championship.
The model has also examined McIlroy's (+1000) chances of becoming a two-time U.S. Open champion, after winning the event 15 years ago in 2011. That was the Irishman's first major win, while his last missed cut at the U.S. Open came when Shinnecock last hosted in 2018. Historically, this has been McIlroy's weakest major, with his most missed cuts (5) and tied for his fewest top 5s (4).
While McIlroy ranks in the top 5 in SG: total, SG: tee-to-green and SG: off-the-tee, he is just 125th in driving accuracy percentage. Shinnecock has wide fairways, but they are still challenging due to the thick 5-inch rough that surrounds them. How McIlroy is able to navigate those fairways with his driving not as precise this year will go a long way in deciding if the Masters winner picks up his second major win of the year. See the full U.S. Open projections from the model here.
How to make 2026 U.S. Open picks
The model is also targeting several longshots, including one who is going off at over 30-1. You can only see the model's picks here.
Who will win the 2026 U.S. Open, which longshots will stun the golfing world, and where will Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy finish? Check out the 2026 U.S. Open odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 17 golf majors, including three in 2025, and five straight Masters.
2026 U.S. Open odds, favorites
Get full 2026 U.S. Open picks, best bets and predictions here.
Odds via FanDuel (subject to change)
Scottie Scheffler +550
Rory McIlroy +1000
Jon Rahm +1400
Xander Schauffele +1600
Tommy Fleetwood +1800
Cameron Young +2000
Ludvig Aberg +2000
Bryson DeChambeau +2000
Matt Fitzpatrick +2200
Brooks Koepka +2200
Sam Burns +3000
Tyrrell Hatton +3300
Justin Thomas +3500
Wyndham Clark +3500
Justin Rose +3500
Collin Morikawa +4000
Patrick Reed +4000
Russell Henley +4000
Si Woo Kim +4000
JJ Spaun +4000
Shane Lowry +4500
Chris Gotterup +4500
Viktor Hovland +5000
Patrick Cantlay +5000
Hideki Matsuyama +5500
Joaquin Niemann +5500
Jordan Spieth +6000
Aaron Rai +6000
Min Woo Lee +6000
Robert MacIntyre +6000
Cameron Smith +6500
Ben Griffin +6500
Kristoffer Reitan +6500
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen +7000
Tony Finau +7000
Jason Day +7000
Will Zalatoris +7000
Maverick McNealy +7500
Jake Knapp +8000
J.T. Poston +8000
Sepp Straka +8000
Rickie Fowler +8000
Akshay Bhatia +8000
Jacob Bridgeman +8000
Kurt Kitayama +8000
Alex Fitzpatrick +8000
Sahith Theegala +10000
Harris English +10000
Corey Conners +10000
Daniel Berger +10000
Taylor Pendrith +10000
Alex Noren +10000
Adam Scott +10000
Ryan Fox +10000
Max Homa +10000
Sungjae Im +10000
Carlos Ortiz +10000
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