2026 World Cup betting, odds: Betting public heavily backing USMNT against Paraguay

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The U.S. men’s national team opens its 2026 World Cup campaign on Friday night at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, California (9 p.m. ET, FOX) as a solid favorite against Paraguay in the first match for Group D.

Not surprisingly, the betting public is heavily backing the home team to get a victory in its World Cup debut on home soil.

The USMNT is a +110 favorite on the three-way line at sportsbooks to win, with Paraguay at +280 and a draw at +220. At BetMGM, 88% of the wagers and 90% of the money were on the United States to win, as of Friday morning. The avalanche of U.S. money was similar at other sportsbooks, with 92% of bets and over 70% of the betting action on the U.S. to win at DraftKings.

The over/under for the match is set at 2.5 goals, and the juice has moved significantly to the under (opened -130, now at -185).

“The sharps are on Paraguay plus half a goal and the public is on USA side as expected,” Jeff Sherman, vice president of risk at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, told Yahoo Sports in a text message on Friday afternoon.

The two teams met back on Nov. 15 in an international friendly that the U.S. won 2-1. Gio Reyna scored in the fourth minute in that game, while striker Folarin Balogun netted the second-half game winner in 71st minute.

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