2026 World Cup: Bosnia and Herzegovina emerges as USMNT's likeliest Round of 32 opponent after eliminating Qatar

Bosnia and Herzegovina took down Qatar 3-1 on Wednesday to finish third in Group B. Will its next World Cup game come against the United States?

With four points over three group games, Bosnia and Herzegovina is almost assured of a spot in the knockout rounds, despite a goal differential of minus-1. With 32 of the 48 teams in the World Cup advancing to the knockout rounds, eight of the 12 third-place teams will advance to the Round of 32.

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Those eight teams will be decided by their points scored over the group games, with goal differential, goals scored and fair play points as the top three tiebreakers. Even though Bosnia and Herzegovina isn't locked into the Round of 32 just yet, teams that earn at least four points in the group stage shouldn't be sweating elimination too much.

World Cup schedule | Group schedule, results | Standings

How the third-place teams were bracketed

FIFA determined the World Cup 2026 knockout-round bracket well in advance. The eight third-place teams will each play a team that finished first in its group.

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With FIFA wanting to ensure that no teams from the same group meet again before the quarterfinals, third-place teams are slotted into the bracket based on which groups have third-place teams advancing. Because it won Group D, the United States knows it will play a team from Groups B, E, F, I or J. But that team won't be determined until the group stage concludes on Saturday.

In most of the combinations FIFA ran during the tournament, the third-place team from Group B — Bosnia and Herzegovina — was the most likely opponent for the winner of Group D. But if there are several upsets over the next few days, the United States could end up playing someone else.

Third-place standings

Here's how the third-place race stacks up through Wednesday afternoon.