A Way-Too-Early Look At The AL Cy Young Award Race

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About two months into the season, the Cy Young picture is starting to separate into a few clear tiers. Injuries to reigning back-to-back winner Tarik Skubal and Red Sox ace Garrett Crochet have dramatically reshaped the American League race. Meanwhile, the National League remains centered around familiar dominance, with some fresh challengers entering the conversation.

There are seven starting pitchers across both leagues with sub-2.00 ERAs. The last time that happened at this point in the season was in May 2015, featuring these arms leading the pack: Shelby Miller (ATL) 1.48 ERA; Zack Greinke (LAD) 1.48 ERA; Max Scherzer (WSH) 1.51 ERA; Dallas Keuchel (HOU) 1.76 ERA; AJ; Burnett (PIT) 1.81 ERA; Sonny Gray (ATH) 1.82 ERA; Felix Hernandez (SEA) 1.91 ERA. Keuchel won the AL Cy Young award that year, while Jake Arrieta (CHC) wound up besting Greinke for the NL Cy Young award.

Who will shake things up this time around? Here’s our way-too-early check-in on the AL Cy Young award contenders:

Frontrunners

Schlittler leads the major leagues in ERA (1.50), and leads the AL in WHIP (0.84) and innings pitched (72), and is ranked third in the AL in strikeout rate (29.5%). Tha Yankees' righty has proven that his impressive postseason performance last October was no fluke. The only concern remaining is how he will respond to surpassing his career innings total, particularly depending on how aggressively the Yankees deploy the 25-year-old down the stretch.

Cease has hit the injured list for the first time in his career as he deals with a mild left hamstring strain, which is a blow to his Cy Young chances depending on how much time he needs to recover. But he’s not out of the race if he’s only sidelined for the minimum 15 days, and if he picks up some momentum again. Cease leads the AL with a 35.7% strikeout rate through 11 starts. He recorded a 3.05 ERA and 92 strikeouts over 62 innings. The typically durable Cease has made at least 32 starts in each of the past five seasons. The Blue Jays need him to bounce back amid their injury-plagued season.

New Faces

Soriano established himself as a frontline starter after recording a ridiculous 0.24 ERA in his first six starts, but his underlying metrics indicate he was getting lucky, as well as pitching better than his expected numbers. That’s part of why his 5.34 ERA over his last six starts isn’t all that surprising. Even if Soriano can’t maintain his initial brilliant pace all year, he can still be a legitimate Cy Young contender by season’s end.

The South Sider’s emerging ace went from recording a 4.10 ERA in 25 starts and 142.2 innings last year, to posting a 2.04 ERA and the highest win total (7) in the AL across 10 starts this year. Per FanGraphs WAR, only three other starters have been more valuable than Martin this year. The biggest question is whether he will be able to continue throwing hitters off balance for the remainder of the year.

Messick is not only going for the AL Cy Young, but he’s also a clear-cut Rookie of the Year contender after putting together strong outings against dominant, World-Series caliber lineups and suppressing hard contact. The most encouraging aspect of Messick’s Cy Young candidacy is that his expected numbers show that his 2.24 ERA over 11 outings and 64 innings is not an accident. More and more, Messick looks like the real deal. The 25-year-old should benefit greatly from this year’s wide-open race.

If Everything Breaks Right

Cole almost certainly won’t pitch enough innings for standard volume qualifications after missing the first two months of the season recovering from Tommy John surgery. But if he dominates opposing hitters all year like he did in his season debut, his proven track record has a chance to outweigh typical counting stats. A strong, comeback-player-of-the-year type of finish should grant him enough votes to make things interesting.

Even despite the fact that his fastball velo is no longer as elite as it used to be, and his mechanics have changed over the years, deGrom still has exceptional execution and command, with a 29.8% strikeout rate that’s not so far off from what it was when he won the 2019 NL Cy Young award. As always, deGrom’s only real adversary here is his health. He finally completed 30 starts last year, and if he can slightly improve his numbers while running back the same workload, the two-time Cy Young winner has a shot to earn more hardware.

Honorable mentions: Gavin Williams (Guardians); Nick Martinez (Rays); Joe Ryan (Twins); Tarik Skubal (Tigers); Max Fried (Yankees); Kevin Gausman (Blue Jays)

Deesha Thosar covers Major League Baseball as a reporter and columnist for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.

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