Blue Jays vs. Astros MLB picks: Yordan Alvarez, Houston should take advantage of pitching break in matinee

The Astros appear to have a sizable pitching edge today vs. the Blue Jays

Wednesday is a getaway day for a handful of clubs around MLB, so there are four matinees, and I will look at the first one when the Blue Jays visit the Astros with a 2:10 p.m. ET first pitch. Originally, this looked interesting to me because on paper it was set to be fabulous pitching matchup between AL Cy Young contender Dylan Cease and Hunter Brown, but Toronto opted to push Cease back, and now I think Houston offers great value.

Toronto both bought and sold at Monday's trade deadline, but the defending AL champions will almost surely not be returning to the postseason, as they are sitting last in the AL East … yet still only four games out of the junior circuit's final wild-card spot. The SportsLine Projection Model only gives the Blue Jays a 2.2% shot at the playoffs, and DraftKings prices them at +800.

It's not happening, but Toronto didn't gut itself to the point where it can't bounce back in 2027 and in fact added Angels ace Jose Soriano for just that reason, while also selling off some bullpen pieces and outfielder Daulton Varsho. He was traded to Houston on Monday, simply switched locker rooms and played against his former teammates that night. 

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Blue Jays-Astros MLB same-game parlay

• Houston to not bat bottom nine
• Under 1.5 first-inning runs

DraftKings SGP price: +130

If Houston loses and misses the playoff by a game, I want you to circle today. That's because it was originally to be Cease's turn, and he's the +110 second-favorite for the AL Cy Young. The righty was just named AL Pitcher of the Month for a July in which he had a 1.00 ERA and 0.72 WHIP in five starts spanning 36.0 innings, with 46 strikeouts, a .125 opponents' batting average. He led the majors in OBA and WHIP, ranked second among qualified pitchers in ERA, tied for second in innings pitched, and ranked fourth in strikeouts last month.

But since Toronto is realistically out of playoff contention, the team has opted to go to a six-man rotation for now, and I'm sure that's simply to save innings on Cease and any others in the team's plans for 2027. Plus, the club has a makeup game at Wrigley Field on Thursday. So, it will be righty Jameson Taillon (2-6, 5.92 ERA) today. The 34-year-old had been atrocious of late with the Cubs, so they designated him for assignment and then dealt him to Toronto basically for a bag of balls.

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Perhaps we can expect a lot of homers today for Houston, considering Taillon has given up a whopping 25 this year, over just 76 innings pitched. The model has him at 5.7 innings pitched, 4.3 strikeouts, 5.3 hits allowed and 2.8 earned runs.

Houston's Yordan Alvarez, who now appears on the way to not just the AL MVP (-900 favorite) but also the Triple Crown, is 5-for-15 with a homer in his career vs. Taillon. Catcher Christian Vasquez doesn't play every day but likely will today as he's 6-for-11 with two doubles and two homers off Taillon – a cool 1.818 OPS.

The Astros' only major acquisition ahead of the deadline was Varsho from Toronto, and he is 1-for-6 (three walks) with his new club against his former one. With a 2.5-game lead atop the AL West, Houston has a 72.5% shot at the playoffs according to  the model. 

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As for Brown (3-1, 3.42), he was rather uneven in July at 2-1 with a 4.94 in five starts but won the final two, allowing two runs and eight hits over 12.2 innings. In his second start back off a lengthy injured list stint opposite Cease on June 22, Brown allowed one run over three innings.

He was on a pitch count back then but threw a season-high 104 last time out, and the model has Brown at 5.4 innings, 5.7 strikeouts, 4.6 hits allowed and 1.7 earned runs. Not many Blue Jays have done much off him career, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at 1-for-8 with two Ks.

The Astros got a gift today with no Cease and this is the type of thing a playoff-contending team needs to take advantage of. I'm fine with simply Houston to not bat bottom of the ninth at -130 but added the first-inning kicker for the much better price. The Astros might get one off Taillon in the first, but the Jays will not score. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.