Chiefs 2026 NFL futures odds: Patrick Mahomes expected to be ready Week 1, but offense has been regressing

The Kansas City Chiefs' offense has been going backward for three years

CBS Sports HQ continues its tour of NFL training camps Wednesday with a visit to Missouri Western State University to check in on the Kansas City Chiefs, who seem to be at a fork in the road with their dynasty. The franchise's 10-year streak of making the playoffs ended in 2025, thanks in large part to a 1-9 record in one-score games, Patrick Mahomes is working his way back from a devastating knee injury, and fellow future Hall of Famer Travis Kelce is likely playing his final season as he focuses on his post-football career and marriage to Taylor Swift.

You also hear talk this could be the last year for another Canton-bound guy in coach Andy Reid. It's his 14th season with Kansas City and Reid lasted 14 previously in Philadelphia, although he was fired there.

Indeed, there are many story lines from Chiefs camp. Reid is considered an offensive guru and calls the plays for the most part, but that unit has been regressing for the past three seasons, even with Kansas City repeating as Super Bowl champion in 2023 and returning to the big game yet again in 2024 but losing to Philadelphia. 

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In Mahomes' first five seasons as a starter (2018-22), in which he won both of his regular-season MVPs, the Chiefs averaged at least 30 points per game to become one of just three teams all-time to average at least 30 in a five-year span, along with the 1940s/50s Rams and 2000s Patriots of Tom Brady. In that three-year span, Kansas City ranked first in scoring, first in yards per game and first in 20-yard plays league-wide.

However, the past three seasons combined, those rankings are 19th, 18th and tied for 23rd, respectively. Mahomes has somewhat evolved from a Brett Favre-type gunslinger type to more of a careful game manager as over the past three seasons he ranks 23rd in yards per attempt, 21st in passer rating and 11th in QB efficiency (as measured by EPA per dropback).

It's certainly not all on Mahomes. Kelce will go down as one of the best tight ends in NFL history, but his last 1,000-yard season and double-digit TD catch season were both in 2022; otherwise No. 15 hasn't had great skill-position talent around him. The Chiefs are the only NFL team without a 1,000-yard rusher or receiver in the past three seasons. Mahomes has thrown for 11,698 yards since 2023, the most in a three-year span in league history without a 1,000-yard receiver.

I'm not sure I see a 1,000-yard receiver on this roster. Kelce is set at Over/Under 674.5 yards after averaging a career-low 50.2 YPG in 2025, Xavier Worthy is already banged up, and fellow wideouts Rashee Rice and Tyquan Thornton leave much to be desired. 

You do hear some chatter that K.C. could bring back Tyreek Hill, who is a free agent but has seen much better days. Mahomes had an NFL-high 41 passing TDs on deep throws (at least 20 air yards) from 2018-21 but seven in the four seasons since the Hill trade to Miami.

Worthy might be the league's fastest player, but he has caught only seven of 34 deep balls the past two seasons, the second-lowest catch rate (20.6%) in the league among 42 players targeted a minimum of 30 times on those types of throws. Kansas City has started an NFL-high 15 different wide receivers the past three seasons. 

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The team might run more than in years past with the big free-agent addition of tailback and reigning Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III of the Seahawks. He had had more 25-yard runs on one drive in the Super Bowl (two) than Chiefs tailbacks had all of last season (one). Walker is set at Over/Under 949.5 rushing yards, and I lean Over as long as he stays healthy. Kansas City's last 1,000-yard rusher was in 2017. If you plan to try NFL futures betting at the best sports betting apps and top sports betting sites, you can stay up to date on information like NFL injuries on our NFL betting page.

And obviously now Mahomes has to return from the most serious injury of his career, although all signs point to him being fully ready for Week 1 on Monday, Sept. 14, when K.C. hosts Denver. You think the NFL would have put the Chiefs in the first Monday Night Football game of the season if the league wasn't sure Mahomes would be ready?

Still, there are concerns now about Mahomes' legs, which he has relied on plenty. He leads the NFL in passing first downs (114) and rushing first downs (60) outside the pocket in the past three seasons. As it was, Mahomes was sacked a career-high 2.4 times per game last season and had a career-low low 41.9% completion when pressured. The various sportsbooks are holding off on posting Mahomes season individual statistical props to ensure he is ready for the opener.

But he's the +185 favorite for NFL Comeback Player of the Year, +1000 to win a third MVP, +1200 to lead the league in passing yards and +2000 in passing TDs. Perhaps the return of offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy helps, as K.C. averaged an NFL-high 30.1 PPG during his previous tenure in that role (2018-22).

Kansas City's win total is set at 10.5, and I'm leaning Under as this roster looks old and brittle – and the defense lost three secondary starters. To make the playoffs, the Chiefs are -205. The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts them for 9.6 wins and a 58.2% shot at the playoffs.