Fantasy Baseball Hitter Waiver Wire: 'Let's welcome the Pirates' new primary leadoff hitter'

Notably across MLB, the Astros' pitching staff has been fortunate with a single-digit K-BB%, yet a low BABIP and high strand rate. They've been allowing hard contact, given their xERA and his SIERA align with the low K-BB%. That suggests that we should be streaming opposing hitters against the Astros until proven otherwise. Meanwhile, the Reds' pitchers have been brutal in K-BB%, WHIP and barrel rate, supporting the brutal xERA and SIERA.

Below you'll see the full breakdown of adjusted pitching matchup scores for Week 12:

It's a full week with most teams playing six games. Only two teams play seven, including the Orioles and Mariners.

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Seven-Game Slates in Week 12

• Orioles (4 vs. SEA, 3 vs. SD)

  • All right-handed starting pitchers are ahead for the Orioles' hitters. It will be a challenge in the early part of the week against the Mariners, though they face Griffin Canning, Randy Vásquez and Walker Buehler with the Padres. Maybe Colton Cowser picks up consistent playing time, with his power and speed tools.

• Mariners (4 at BAL, 3 at WSH)

  • The Mariners face two of the bottom-five teams in the pitcher-adjusted scores, signaling that it should be a favorable matchup for Seattle. Trevor Rogers, Kyle Bradish and Cade Cavalli look like their toughest matchups for the Mariners' hitters, so they could feast. The Mariners project to face six right-handed starting pitchers in Week 12. That will benefit Dominic Canzone and Luke Raley.

Notable Hitter Matchups in Week 12

• Rockies (3 vs. CHC, 3 at ATH in Las Vegas)

  • The Rockies' hitters could have a productive week, playing three games at home and three games in Las Vegas against the Athletics' weak pitching staff. The Rockies' hitters project to face four right-handed starting pitchers in Week 12

• Athletics (3 vs. MIL, 3 vs. COL) - All games played in Las Vegas

  • The Athletics will play all six games in Las Vegas as a showcase week. However, we can't start any of their strong-side platoon options since they face three left-handed starting pitchers out of six games. Carlos Cortes takes the biggest hit.

Shallow- to Medium-League Hitter Pickups (50% Rostered or Lower)

Spencer Horwitz, Pirates (19% Rostered)

Let's welcome the new Pirates' primary leadoff hitter, Spencer Horwitz. Since May 24, Horwitz has hit in the leadoff spot in 12 of 14 games. The lone two games not hitting leadoff came against a left-handed starting pitcher. Horwitz is an asset in batting average and points league formats, with his strong plate discipline. That's evident in Horwitz's 87.3% contact rate, 5.2% swinging-strike rate and a career .387 OBP.

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He boasts a 5.5% barrel rate per plate appearance, which hovers near the league average. The individual matchups look more favorable than expected, as the Pirates project to face Eric Lauer, Shohei Ohtani, Justin Wrobleski, Tyler Phillips, Sandy Alcantara and Braxton Garrett. Ohtani and Wrobleski should be the tougher matchups in Week 12. Pick up and stream Horwitz for batting average and OBP in most formats.

Jackson Holliday, Orioles (42% Rostered)

Jackson Holliday's roster percentage being this high after recently returning in the middle of May indicates fantasy managers have been stashing him. Since Holliday returned, he started against four of eight left-handed starting pitchers, showing he could earn regular playing time instead of a strong-side platoon role. He has hit two home runs and stolen three bases this season, after going 17/17 in 2025. It's a small sample, but Holliday has a 13.8% walk rate, 70.9% contact rate and 12.4% swinging-strike rate in 2026. Specifically, Holliday's walk and contact rate have been 4-5 percentage points different. For instance, Holliday's walk rate is higher and contact rate is lower in the 2026 sample.

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Holliday's power is mediocre, given a career 5.2% barrel rate per plate appearance. However, the speed seems legitimate. Holliday has a 20% stolen base opportunity rate after 17% in 2025. Hopefully, Holliday can convert stolen base chances at a high rate after a concerning 60% stolen base conversion rate last season. Scoop up Holliday in shallower formats because the Orioles project to face all right-handed starting pitchers for seven games. He should be a good source of power and speed this week.

Edwin Arroyo, Reds (8% Rostered)

After Elly De La Cruz landed on the injured list, the Reds called up Edwin Arroyo. He has been a source of power and speed during his minor league career, hitting 11 homers and stealing nine bases at Triple-A in 2026. He flashed a strong contact rate in the minors, with an 81.1% contact rate. However, Arroyo can be aggressive, evidenced by a 37.8% chase rate and 10.2% swinging-strike rate.

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Arroyo's prospect grades had him with below-average power, which can be seen via his 5.3% barrel rate per plate appearance at Triple-A (2026). Stolen bases might be more projectable as part of Arroyo's profile than home runs. If you need upside, speculate on Arroyo in medium- or deep-league formats.

Luke Raley, Mariners (28% Rostered)

Luke Raley has been rolling since May 1. He has eight home runs with a .274 batting average and 159 wRC+ since the start of May. The Mariners project to face all right-handed starting pitchers in Week 12, giving us more interest. Raley flashes his high-end 75.3 mph and an 11.2% barrel rate per plate appearance. It's a high-risk, high-reward profile because Raley has historically-low contact rates (58.6%) and a 22.2% swinging-strike rate.

Take advantage of the righty-heavy matchups with Raley for power while he is hitting well.

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Deep-League Hitter Pickups (Under 10% Rostered)

Vaughn Grissom, Angels (3% Rostered)

I was admittedly into Vaughn Grissom previously, but that hasn't worked out. Grissom has been a regular part of the Angels' starting lineup. He has been playing more regularly since May 24 with two home runs, a .300 batting average and a 152 wRC+. Grissom has been lowering his strikeout rate to a career-low at 11% compared to a 17.8% career average.

He has been making a similar amount of contact (81.8%) this season, but he is lowering his chase rate (24.2%) and swinging-strike rate (8.3%). Both Grissom's chase and swinging-strike rates would be career lows. Grissom's bat speed has been increasing by over two mph, supported by an intentional effort to pull the ball into the air. That's evident by Grissom's 45.8% pull rate and a 42% flyball rate in 2026. For context, Grissom's pull rate is over three points higher with a near nine-point jump in flyball rate this season.

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The Astros and Rays should be favorable matchups for the Angels, with Spencer Arrighetti, Shane McClanahan and Griffin Jax as the best options. Pick up Grissom and stream him in Week 12.

Note: keep tabs on Grissom's side injury because he has missed three games since Friday. If Grissom is out, pivot to Nolan Schanuel (10%), who gives you a similar fantasy profile for batting average.

Dominic Canzone, Mariners (6% Rostered)

It's wild that Dominic Canzone's roster rate is lower than Raley's. Since the middle of May (May 15), Canzone has four home runs, a .306 batting average and a 183 wRC+. There will be six right-handed starting pitchers projected to face the Mariners in Week 12, leading to a potentially strong offensive week. Canzone has been sustaining a higher bat speed (74.5 mph) and 11.5% barrel rate per plate appearance, though his 73.5% contact rate worries us.

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Stream Canzone in deeper leagues as a strong-side platoon option.

Nathaniel Lowe, Reds (4% Rostered)

The Reds project to face five of six right-handed starting pitchers, including some favorable matchups. That includes Lucas Giolito, Michael King and Walker Buehler in the first half of the week, with Eduardo Rodríguez, Michael Soroka and Zac Gallen in the latter half. Lowe has been showing decent plate discipline, with a 82.3% contact rate and a 7.8% swinging-strike rate. The power tools have been there for Lowe, given his increased bat speed (74.2 mph) and career-best 9% barrel rate per plate appearance.

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Lowe should be a sneaky volume option for power against some weak pitching matchups.

Lars Nootbaar, Cardinals (4% Rostered)

Lars Nootbaar made his 2026 debut over the weekend. He already hit one home run with high-end bat speed (75.7 mph). Nootbaar will be regularly hitting in the middle of the Cardinals' lineup and is someone to pick up before he goes off, especially in OBP leagues.