Fantasy Baseball Trade Analyzer: It's the perfect time to buy low on these 8 players

1 month ago 17

The middle of April is prime buy-low season in fantasy baseball. We are deep enough into the season that some managers are losing their patience with slow starters, but we aren’t deep enough to take most of the small-sample data too seriously.

In most situations, it’s too early to make a buy-low deal for an elite player. Most managers will stick with their superstars through a short burst of struggle. By all means, feel free to shoot your shot with an offer for Julio Rodríguez, Ronald Acuña Jr. or José Ramírez. But don’t be surprised if those offers are quickly declined.

Targeting the next tier of players makes the most sense. Players selected in rounds 5-12 are good enough to make a major impact when they are playing well. But they also have a low enough ceiling to be traded when they are in a slump.

Here are some players who fit that description.

Ivan Herrera, C, Cardinals

As was mentioned in yesterday’s article about catchers, Herrera has shown much better skills this season than his results suggest. The 25-year-old hits second in a Cardinals lineup that has been better than expected and he should be a fine source of batting average and counting stats the rest of the way. Some managers may look at his .200 average and low homer total (one) and believe that he is a fringe asset at the position.

Alec Burleson, 1B/OF, Cardinals

At first glance, we are at the outset of another ho-hum season for Burleson. After all, he’s hitting .270 with two homers and a .786 OPS. But a deeper dive reveals some signs of encouragement. The 27-year-old has taken his plate discipline from good to elite by logging a 14.7% walk rate and an 8.0% strikeout rate. And he is hitting the ball harder than ever before (92.8 mph average exit velocity). His expected stats are much better than his actual marks. This could be the start of a breakout year.

Ketel Marte, 2B, Diamondbacks

In terms of March ADP, Marte is the best player on this list. Although the second baseman is off to a disappointing start (.212 average, .702 OPS), his 92.4 mph average exit velocity is the second-highest mark of his career and doesn’t correlate with his .208 BABIP. Marte may miss a bit of time each year, but he’s one of the most consistent hitters in baseball and should be hitting .270 by the end of April.

Trevor Story, SS, Red Sox

The buy-low window on Story (.471 OPS) should be wide open. After all, the shortstop disappointed fantasy managers for three straight years before finally exceeding expectations last season. Many managers who bought into the resurgence must be kicking themselves for drafting someone with such a lengthy list of injuries and unproductive stretches.

I would want a major discount on Story. But I haven’t lost sight of the upside he showed when he produced 25 homers and 31 steals last season.

Michael Harris II, OF, Braves

The trade offer for Harris is easy to write -- he was mostly ineffective over the previous two seasons and is off to a slow start (.641 OPS) this year. But the underlying numbers show that Harris could be on the verge of taking his game to another level. He’s hitting the ball harder than ever before (92.1 mph average exit velocity) and has career-best marks in xBA (.304) and xSLG (.606). Harris swiped 20 bases in three of his four seasons and is ready to post a career-best homer total.

Kyle Bradish, SP, Orioles

Bradish is off to a disappointing start, mostly thanks to an elevated 14.8% walk rate. The rest of his stats look fine, including a 27.9% strikeout rate. He is keeping the ball in the yard (one homer allowed), and his 3.20 xERA is much lower than his actual mark (5.27). I would be excited to acquire Bradish, who logged a 2.78 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP across 44 starts from 2023-25, at a discount and hope that his walk rate comes down.

Jesús Luzardo, SP, Phillies

If there is one player I want to acquire on this list, it’s Luzardo. His 6.23 ERA may be more deceiving than the ERA of any other pitcher. The southpaw owns an impressive 26:4 K:BB ratio and has struck out at least seven batters in each of his starts. Luzardo has been felled by brutal luck (.359 BABIP) and terrible timing (46.5% strand rate). His fastball velocity is up this year, and he could perform at an ace level going forward.

Danny Palencia, RP, Cubs

Although Palencia has pitched well this year (0.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP), some of his managers may be growing impatient with his lack of saves. The low total (one) is simply bad luck, as the Cubs are off to a slow start with an 8-9 record. Chicago is still expected to be a postseason contender, and Palencia is locked in as its closer. He’s an excellent candidate to accumulate 35 saves.

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