Fantasy baseball waiver wire: Tarik Skubal's return brings ace expectations despite shortened buildup

Tarik Skubal is coming back this weekend. What should we expect? To a certain extent, it's a total unknown. But my expectations are pretty high, at this point. 

My assumption is he'll more or less be himself. Yes, he's coming back from elbow surgery, but he's coming back from a relatively minor elbow surgery, one that required a very small incision, limited internal damage, and which saw him cleared to throw around a week after his surgery. This was, as far as elbow surgeries go, a fairly minor one, and while the timeline is much more abbreviated than we've ever really seen from this kind of procedure, expectations should be pretty high for Skubal.

That's the straightforward one. There are no guarantees, obviously, but given how smoothly Skubal's recovery has gone, I think having high hopes makes sense for his first start back Saturday against the Guardians. Maybe you can't expect him to get up to 100 pitches in his first start after just one rehab start, but moving forward, I pretty much expect Skubal to be himself. 

He's not the only pitcher working his way back from an injury, so before we get to the rest of what you need to know from Thursday's action around MLB, let's take a look at three other pitchers who made rehab starts in the past couple of days and what to expect from them: 

Mick Abel, SP, Twins (48%) – Abel is working his way back from an elbow injury, and he looked great in his first rehab outing Wednesday. Pitching for Triple-A St. Paul, Abel got through three innings without issue, striking out five without a walk and allowing just two hits. He averaged 96.3 mph with his four-seamer, which is a pretty good sign for the health of his elbow, even if we can't necessarily expect him to keep it up moving forward – he threw just 47 pitches in the truncated outing. He'll probably need at least a few more outings to get his pitch count up and return to the Twins rotation, but he remains worth stashing, especially now that he's clearly on the road back to the majors. He could make a big impact over the final three months of the season. 

Shane Bieber, SP, Blue Jays (59%) – Bieber is also nearing his return from the IL. He threw 62 pitches Thursday at Triple-A and is probably ahead of Abel at this point, though I do think I have a bit more optimism about Abel's chances of actually making an impact this season. Bieber is working his way back from forearm soreness that dates back to the end of last season, and it just might be asking too much for him to stay healthy and be effective at this point. That being said, I'm not writing the possibility off entirely. Bieber was solid in his return from Tommy John surgery last season, putting up a 3.57 ERA with 37 strikeouts in 40.1 innings of work, though his velocity was down 1.2 mph on his four-seamer in that rehab outing Thursday. Bieber has never relied on anything more than average velocity, with his command and multiple breaking ball looks carrying him far more than his fastball ever did, so he could still be effective. But skepticism is warranted at this point. 

Kodai Senga, SP, Mets (24%) – And skepticism is definitely warranted for Senga, who is working his way back from a back injury and has also had some nerve issues in his elbow. But he pitched six innings on 75 pitches at Double -A Thursday, so the nerve issue that forced him to skip a recent start looks like it wasn't a problem. Senga has been effective on his rehab assignment so far, but he was also effective this spring, only to turn into a disaster once the games started counting, so I'm not sure how much we can take from that. If you have a roster spot to play with, I suppose Senga can be worth a stash, but I'm at the point where I really need to see it from him against big-leaguers in games that matter before I buy back in. 

Now, here's what else you need to know about from Thursday's action around MLB: 

Friday's waiver-wire targets

Lars Nootbaar, OF, Cardinals (17%) – Nootbaar was a huge disappointment last season, but maybe he just wasn't healthy? He played 135 games, but he ended up needing surgery on both of his heels this offseason, procedures that kept him out until just six games ago. He has started five of six since coming off the IL and has looked excellent, popping his second homer Thursday and sporting a .937 OPS and 95-plus mph average exit velocity. Nootbaar has been more interesting than actually good for Fantasy for a while now, but I remain interested enough to think he's worth adding in five-outfielder leagues, at least. 

Cole Carrigg, OF, Rockies (26%) – Early on with prospects, we're just hoping they'll hold their own – the production can come later, but first we want to see them look like they belong so they can avoid the early demotion. Carrigg has only played three games in the majors, but he hasn't looked overwhelmed yet, striking out three times, walking once, and hitting his first homer Thursday. He was showing much-improved contact skills and elite speed down at Triple-A, and he has played all three games since getting called up, so the opportunity is there. In five-outfielder categories leagues, he remains worth adding. 

Jared Young, 1B, Mets (3%) – I don't really know where Young has come from, but he has started 12 games for the Mets while hitting cleanup in each of them, and he has provided a big boost to the lineup. He went 2 for 4 with a homer and two RBI, giving him four homers in 24 games total, while hitting .288/.360/.530. It's pretty unlikely this 30-year-old journeyman is suddenly an impact bat, but I suppose it isn't impossible – he hit well in the minors the past few seasons and does have a 91.8 mph average exit velocity, so he isn't totally without merit. At least in NL-only leagues, why not add him and see if this is something more than just a hot streak? 

Jordan Lawlar, OF, Diamondbacks (37%) – I'm not even sure if Lawlar is going to have an everyday role when he gets back from his fractured wrist, though we are going to find out as soon as this weekend, as he's set to come off the IL Friday. Lawlar opened the season 6 for 18 before his injury and was playing regularly in the outfield, and that's where the converted shortstop is going to keep playing, it seems. The Diamondbacks have a full outfield right now, though outside of Corbin Carroll, it's not like anyone is tearing the cover off the ball, so there could be opportunities. But it isn't a sure thing, especially for a player who the team has seemingly soured on since his time as a top prospect. I suspect he's going to get a chance to play regularly and still has the power/speed skills to be a useful Fantasy option if he makes enough contact and gets enough playing time. Neither is a sure thing, but I'm still willing to take a flier on Lawlar in categories leagues. 

Daniel Espino, SP, Guardians (4%) – It's pretty unlikely that Espino is going to matter much, but I wanted to highlight this just for how far this guy has come. He was once arguably the best pitching prospect in baseball, but that was back in 2022 and 2023, before injuries totally derailed his career. He made just nine starts between 2022 and 2025, and he's been used almost exclusively as a single-inning reliever at Triple-A, where he still shows impressive bat-missing abilities but also poor control en route to a 5.30 ERA. Like I said: He probably won't matter, but the fact that he's getting called up to the majors at all at this point seems like a pretty big deal. 

Thursday's standouts

Bryan Woo, Mariners @BAL: 5 IP, 7 H, 7 ER, 1 BB, 4 K – It's been a rocky season for Woo so far, and he has allowed 12 earned runs in 11.1 innings over the past two starts, which is worrying. Or at least it would be if we couldn't look past the surface-level numbers and see, for instance, that he actually had a lower xERA (2.93) than last season (3.07). That doesn't mean everything is perfect – Woo is getting fewer strikeouts than last season, for one thing. But his fastballs still look as effective as ever, and his breaking balls are still missing plenty of bats, so I just don't have much concern here at all. If there's any buy-low window here, I'll take it. 

Kyle Bradish, Orioles vs. SEA: 4 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 5 K – I cannot say the same for Bradish, though I wish I could. Even during his solid May, when he put up a 2.80 ERA, he had a high walk rate and mediocre strikeout rate. Bradish hasn't seemed to have the feel for his slider, and it got just two whiffs Thursday, so it hasn't been solved yet. And in this one, he didn't have the curveball working, which left him relying on the fastballs more, and yep, you guessed it, those also haven't been working well, either. I still think Bradish's track record makes him someone you want to stash in all leagues if you can. But I also think if Reid Detmers is available in your league and Bradish is the worst pitcher on your roster, I'd go ahead and make that swap. 

Edward Cabrera, Cubs @COL: 5.1 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 5 K – Cabrera's velocity was up, which is nice to see in a start where we otherwise can't take much away. That's just the nature of Coors Field, which impacts the movement profiles of pitches to the point where, good or bad, there isn't much point in trying to analyze what a visiting pitcher does there. Cabrera has been a disappointment this season as his fastballs have regressed, but I still think he's a fine streamer for next week's Wrigley Field matchup against the Rockies, if nothing else. 

Zebby Matthews, Twins @DET: 6 IP, 9 H, 7 ER, 1 BB, 4 K – Matthews got off to a really good start to the season, but his stuff looked significantly worse than last season, and I never really bought it. Well, he's now given up seven runs in two of his last three starts and has a 5.20 ERA, making it very easy to give up on him.