Free MLB home run picks August 7: Astros' Jose Altuve among expert's best bets for Friday

SportsLine's Matt Severance shares his best MLB home run props picks for Friday, August 7

I haven't been able to use New York Yankees star and three-time AL MVP Aaron Judge in this column because No. 99 has been out since May 31 due to a stress fracture in a right rib. But some good news emerged this week as Judge was cleared for "light activity" and remains confident he will play again this season. Just don't expect that to be before September. Manager Aaron Boone said this week that Judge would basically need more than a full spring training to ramp up whenever cleared. With Judge missing so much time, we might not even see a 50-homer hitter in 2026. The last time that happened was in 2021. 

Sadly, no games tonight in hitter-happy parks in Cincinnati, Denver or Sacramento. Do note the Yankees home game vs. the Braves and Reds-Nationals have some rain concerns. Otherwise, there are matchups where weather/winds should factor into our MLB prop betting too much. 

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Those who want to get into MLB betting, particularly home run prop betting, need to take a look at what I'm playing for Friday's games. Over the past four MLB seasons, I'm up $1,681 on MLB picks. You can find more of my picks at SportsLine, and in the member-exclusive SportsLine Discord server, a community of sports betting enthusiasts and SportsLine experts.

Last Friday, my home run picks were the Dodgers' Mookie Betts and Giants' Willy Adames. Betts only managed a single in a surprise blowout home loss to Boston. Adames was 0-for-3 with San Francisco blanked in San Diego. So not my best week, but I've still hit one home run play in four of the past six weeks. 

As usual, all of my home run prop picks mean I like Over 1.5 total bases for those players even better. 

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Top MLB home run picks for Friday, August 7

• Jose Altuve, Astros (+560, FanDuel)
• Bobby Witt Jr., Royals (+402, DraftKings) 

Jose Altuve, Astros (+560, FanDuel)

There are a few traded pitchers making their new team debuts Friday, including in the Houston at San Diego game at 9:40 p.m. ET with both battling for playoff positioning. It's San Diego, so clearly no weather concerns -- although winds are blowing out a bit, which doesn't hurt when we're betting on home run props.

The Padres' only route to the postseason is via NL wild card, and to that end they swung big yet again ahead of Monday's trade deadline and acquired two excellent starting pitchers in lefty Robbie Ray from San Francisco and righty Casey Mize from Detroit. You have to love Friars general manager AJ Preller because that dude just doesn't care about sitting around and hoping that some of his top prospects develop. Nope, he flips them for win-now players almost every year. A lack of good prospects is going to bite the franchise eventually, maybe as soon as 2027 because both Ray and Mize are pending free agents. 

The former AL Cy Young winner Ray, who gets the ball on Friday, is having a fine year at 10-4 with a 3.08 ERA and had a 2.00 ERA in five July starts with just one homer allowed in 27.0 innings. And Petco Park is pitcher-friendly, so what am I doing here? For one thing, Ray might be a bit "off" pitching for a new club in a new ballpark. He has allowed 15 dingers on the season.

And Houston second baseman Jose Altuve, a former AL MVP and future Hall of Famer, has hammered Ray with a 1.740 OPS in 20 at-bats with two homers, three doubles and a triple. Altuve is the size of a jockey at 5-foot-6 but always has had a little bit of pop and has 13 homers this year, most recently going deep in the Astros' last game Wednesday. 

Also consider likely 2026 AL MVP Yordan Alvarez at +281 as he's 2-for-4 off Ray with a homer. The MLB home run leader with 35 might be due, as he hit his last bomb on July 28.

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Bobby Witt Jr. Royals (+402, DraftKings) 

The Chicago Cubs open a series in Kansas City tonight at 8:10 ET with winds blowing slightly to left field at Kauffman Stadium and very hot temperatures. I apparently have a theme today with traded pitchers in their debuts as righty Kevin Gausman goes for the Cubbies after being acquired from Toronto on Monday for two lower-level prospects. 

As a Cubs fan, I liked that deal because Gausman has been one of the AL's best pitchers since singing a big free-agent contract with the Blue Jays ahead of the 2022 season, and he has plenty of playoff experience. Toronto perhaps doesn't make the 2025 World Series and nearly win it without Gausman. He has a 3.83 ERA in 14 career playoff games. 

I am hoping that this is simply a fluke year for the 35-year-old at 5-10 with a 4.38 ERA. The velocity is pretty much still there, but homers have been a problem as he's allowed 21. Perhaps a change of scenery and going from last place in the AL East to a title contender wakes Gausman up. He hasn't faced Kansas City this year.

The last time I picked a Royals batter, catcher Salvador Perez, he did go yard, but I don't plan on making weak-hitting Kansas City players a recurring thing. That said, All-Star shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. is about as good a pure hitter as there is in the AL. Witt has gone yard 13 times this season but has only done so once since the end of June and that was July 9 at the Mets, although Witt did spend some time in there on the injured list. He's fared well against Gausman at 5-for-15 with two homers and a double.

Also consider outfielder Starling Marte, as even though he only has one homer and doesn't play every day but should be in there tonight. Why? Marte is 8-for-15 off Gausman with a homer and three doubles. Ideally both those Royals hit one out, but my Cubbies still win.