Jacob Gibbs' definitive do NOT draft list: Round-by-round players to FADE

Hey there! It's August, and we have NFL football happening THIS week! Let's go!

Maybe you've been plugged into the Fantasy Football content machine all offseason long, or maybe this email finds you just beginning your 2026 Fantasy Football journey. Regardless, thanks for taking the time to open the email and read it!

I'm really excited for football, if the exclamation mark at the end of four of my five opening sentences didn't give it away! Specifically, I'm pumped to share another season with you in this space -- I genuinely appreciate you being an FFT Newsletter reader and look forward to helping you enjoy your 2026 Fantasy Football season.

Over the past year, Dan Schneier and I launched Beyond the Box Score -- a podcast project that has been an extremely fun challenge for us both. An engaged community has grown around the podcast, particularly on YouTube, and my primary focus this offseason has been to pump out as much high-quality content as possible on BTB. Everyone makes their return to Fantasy Football on their own timing -- some of the sickest among us even receive mock draft invitations from Jamey Eisenberg in January -- so my hope in pouring so much time into the BTB YouTube product this offseason is to provide a landing page where anyone beginning their 2026 Fantasy Football draft prep can dig in and binge quality content to their heart's desire. Dan and I just published an episode where we selected 10 NFL teams that we would be content crossing off of our draft boards -- if you are unfamiliar with BTB, that episode might be a fun one to try out first!

It is August now, so my assumption is that a good portion of the loyal FFT Newsletter readers are thinking about football again. Let's get it, then. Let's lock in.

The first FFT Newsletter post I ever sent detailed players who I was avoiding in Fantasy. I decided to bring that topic back in my first post of 2026.

Today's email includes the single player from each round (using CBS Sports ADP - full PPR scoring) who I find myself the least interested in.

Round 1 - De'Von Achane

Jonathan Taylor was my initial pick here. I expect to have zero JT on my season-long managed teams. I have Ashton Jeanty and Chase Brown ranked ahead of JT in any PPR format. I have Amon-Ra St. Brown ranked ahead of JT. He felt like the most-likely player to be on my Round 1 'Do Not Draft List,' even though he might legitimately be the best RB in the league. The right side of the Colts offensive line scares me, as does the right side of Daniel Jones' body -- specifically, his surgically repaired Achilles tendon. Taylor averaged nearly 30 PPR points per game across the first eight games of the 2025 Colts season, but that feels like ages ago. Maybe this offense gets humming like that again, but I don't want to bet on it.

Another offense I do not want to bet on is the one that is paying a combined $66.8 million to the combined unit when the NFL average for the other 31 teams is $149.7m, and that's the offense that employs De'Von Achane. The Jets ($97.5m) are the only other team with a cumulative salary below $100m. I love Achane's talent. I am fine with him if he falls into late Round 2. I absolutely am not using a top-12 pick on him in 2026. Alec Pierce will make $30 million in 2026. The entire Dolphins offense -- over 30 players -- will make $66.8m. I can't get over that.

Round 2 - Josh Allen

Again, I thought I knew who my pick would be. Then I saw the CBS ADP. Rahsee Rice was going to be my clear fade in Round 2. I have him ranked 37th overall. There's so much risk with Rice. Off the field, of course, but also -- what if Rice isn't spammed targets in the same fashion as we have grown accustomed to now that Kenneth Walker is on the team?

Josh Allen in Round 2 presents a massive opportunity cost problem. From a strategic standpoint, I have a hard time signing off on selecting Allen anywhere before Round 5. The board is so deep at QB this year. Historic data backs it up -- drafting a QB early is likely a suboptimal approach.

Round 3 - Kyren Williams

I have Kyren Williams ranked 45th overall for PPR formats and 40th overall for non-PPR. An outcome exists where Williams continues to produce just like he has over the past three years -- I recognize that. I wonder if what used to be his median outcome is now his best-case outcome, though. After handling 60% of the LA Rams red zone touches in 2023 and 61% in 2024, Williams saw just a 38% rate in 2025. Not only does Davante Adams now function as a primary weapon when in scoring distance, but Blake Corum also is cutting into that work more and more. In 2024, Corum saw six percent of the red zone touches. In 2025, Corum's share was 17%. A popular breakout pick by almost any LA Rams media outlet, Corum could continue to siphon away more work from his veteran backfield mate in 2026.

Without explosive plays or much receiving contributions to speak of, Williams is awfully reliant on red zone conversion rate to produce high-level Fantasy output. It feels like a thin bet. The best-case outcome is that Williams produces an outlier number of touchdowns. The worst-case is that his body wears down after three consecutive years of carrying a heavy workload. I'd rather bet on players who I feel like have lots of remaining untapped potential in Round 3.

Round 4 - Travis Etienne

Etienne led all running backs in Fantasy points scored as the pre-snap motion man in 2025. That's a Liam Coen stat. The Jaguars ranked bottom-10 in EPA per RB rush and success rate on RB runs, and yet Etienne was a top-10 Fantasy RB. That feels like another Liam Coen stat.

I'm not sure what we can expect from Etienne in New Orleans, especially with Alvin Kamara returning to the fold. It's possible that I am missing out on a bell-cow, but I'm not sure if I care. The Saints offense probably takes a step forward in 2026, maybe even a significant one. Or maybe they don't, maybe defenses stymie Tyler Shough after an offseason of scouting what worked for Kellen Moore's offense last year. I expect this offense to be pass-heavy, especially when in scoring distance. I'm avoiding Etienne and taking shots on players who I believe offer more upside (namely, Terry McLaurin, Ladd McConkey, Jaylen Waddle, and Luther Burden) in Round 4. I'm totally content waiting until Round 5 to draft an RB and taking a chance on Bhayshul Tuten or Bucky Irving. If really in need of a "secure" workload, I prefer Round 5 David Montgomery to Round 4 Etienne.

Round 5 - Jameson Williams

This isn't a bad range to draft Jamo, if you believe that he takes another step in his progression. The Lions offense could be a Fantasy Football point print shop in 2026. I'd rather select Christian Watson or Mike Evans, if drafting a player of this ilk. There's more target upside available to those two, even if the injury risk is real. There are so many WR values available in 2026, so I feel comfortable taking swings on risk/reward players in this range. I can supplement a Watson/Evans pick with undervalued gems in the later rounds.

Round 6 - Alec Pierce

My apprehension about the right side of the line and the Achilles recovery for Jones have me avoiding Pierce. He's a great player. I do not feel any level of confidence in Indy's ability to replicate last season's efficiency on deep balls. In fact, I could see this offense prioritizing getting the ball out as quick as possible in the dropback game. That would benefit Josh Downs and Tyler Warren. I expect both to outscore Pierce.

Round 7 - Brian Thomas Jr.

Similarly, I have concerns about Jacksonville's offensive line being able to support timing-based downfield perimeter shot plays to BTJ. With Parker Washington, Jakobi Meyers, Brenton Strange, and Travis Hunter all serving as competent over-the-middle threats, I'm not sure how much we'll see BTJ asked to do anything other than stretch the field on the perimeter. Upon acquiring Meyers mid-season, Jacksonville tasked BTJ with a 31% 'go route' rate. That was a 97th percentile rate, according to the Fantasy Points Data Suite. It's extremely difficult to draw Fantasy-relevant target totals within that type of role.

To make matters worse, the Jaguars begin the 2026 season with an unbelievably difficult string of opposing CB1 matchups. BTJ will have his work cut out for him against the best of the best. I'd rather wait and see if I can buy low after a month or two of football than pay a Round 7 price in drafts.

Round 8 - DK Metcalf

Metcalf was already a regression candidate after last season, and we now have an anecdotal reason to expect a statistical dip in the form of priority free agency acquisition Michael Pittman Jr. and Round 2 rookie Germie Bernard. Pittsburgh traded up to select Bernard, which could signal a desire to funnel quick targets to the slot. In 2025, Metcalf benefited from heavy personnel packages boosting his efficiency, but the expectation under new head coach Mike McCarthy is that the Steelers will regularly have three receivers on the field. The target competition is significantly different than last year. If looking for a veteran known commodity at WR, I prefer Jakobi Meyers, Pittman Jr., or even Wan'Dale Robinson. I'd also rather take shots on breakouts from Josh Downs, Jayden Reed, or Quentin Johnston ahead of Metcalf.

Round 9 - Jacory Croskey-Merritt

I love Bill, but there are so many players who I prefer in the Round 9-10 range. Jonathan Brooks has a more complete skill set, I'd rather gamble on him playing a three-down role at some point in 2026. Sometimes you can land Downs or Reed in this range. Makai Lemon is an intriguing bet on talent who could have a larger-than-expected target distribution early as a rookie. I'd roll the dice on him ahead of Bill. 

Round 10 - Matthew Stafford

I have Jared Goff ranked ahead of Stafford. I'm not chasing last year's insane performance. He's 38 years old. The Rams might have the best defense in the league, love their running backs, and could absolutely find themselves regularly playing with a massive lead on the scoreboard and no need to put the foot on the gas pedal in the dropback game.

Goff is seven years younger and has outscored Stafford in three of the past four seasons on a per-game basis. Only Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, and Lamar Jackson have more points than Goff during that time! This isn't even about Goff -- he's just one of the many quarterbacks who go behind Stafford in drafts! Why pay a premium for last year's production? You could take a shot on a high-upside receiver like KC Concepcion or Stefon Diggs with this pick. Maybe a high-end handcuff RB type like Chris Rodriguez or Zach Charbonnet are interesting to you. Round 10 does not feel like a good place to draft a QB, to me.

Round 11 - Mark Andrews

Andrews is fourth in the NFL in red zone touchdowns over the past two seasons, behind only Amon-Ra St. Brown, Davante Adams, and Ja'Marr Chase. That's kinda crazy, right? He's been a dominant red zone weapon for Baltimore, though. His lowest catch rate in the red zone (not including his rookie season) prior to 2025 was 59%. His rate was regularly in the 70-80% range and pushed as high as 87% in 2024. It's no surprise that the previous coaching staff leaned on him in that area. We saw his red zone catch rate drop to 42% last year. He only converted three red zone targets into scores.

What if the red zone target funneling is a thing of the past? That's all Andrews is hanging onto as a Fantasy producer. His yard per route run efficiency cratered last year, following what appears to be a year-over-year pattern at this point. Is a new coaching staff going to force him the ball? We'll see. Not on my fantasy team, though!

Curious who I am drafting? I gave you a few names as alternatives today, and I'll have full rankings/sleepers/breakouts and all the good draft content you need delivered to your inbox soon! Welcome back to Fantasy Football!

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