PGA Tour Canadian Open betting trends, odds: Americans rarely win Canada's national championship these days

Why don't Americans succeed often at the PGA Canadian Open?

American players win the majority of the events annually on the PGA Tour, usually a number between 65 and 70% of tournaments, and that makes sense as the majority of players on the Tour are from the USA. But for some reason, only one U.S. player since 2013 has won the RBC Canadian Open, which tees off Thursday in Toronto.

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It will be a bit of a weaker field this week at the North Course of TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley, which plays to a par-70 at 7,389 yards, because last week was a signature event and next week is the U.S. Open in New York. That means many top guys are taking this week off to prepare for the year's third major championship. Each of the world's top three – Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Cameron Young – is skipping this week's event.

McIlroy is a two-time champion of the tournament. That Scheffler and Young are American and out of the mix obviously lessens the chance of one winning Sunday. Since Brandt Snedeker took the 2013 Canadian Open at Glen Abbey, the only U.S. winner of the event was Dustin Johnson in 2018, also at Glen Abbey, and of course DJ is with soon-to-be extinct LIV Golf.

The past five Canadian Opens – there was no tournament in 2020 or '21 due to COVID – have been won by Ryan Fox (New Zealand), Robert MacIntyre (Scotland), Nick Taylor (Canada) and those two by McIlroy (2019 and '22). In between Snedeker's 2013 win and Johnson's 2018 title, we had winners at the Canadian Open from South Africa (Tim Clark), Australia (Jason Day) and Venezuela (Jhonattan Vegas).

That an American player wins this year is +112 with No at -136, while a European winner is -146 with No at +116. Two Englishmen are favored this week at DraftKings in Tommy Fleetwood (+1150) and Matt Fitzpatrick (+1175), the highest-ranked player in the field at No. 4 and winner of a Tour-best three events in 2026. Neither played here last year, with the event held at TPC Toronto for the first time, as the relative unknown Kiwi Ryan Fox beat American Sam Burns in a playoff. 

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Fox (+5500 this week) is one of six past champions in the field, and the only such American is Sean O'Hair (2011), who is a +450000 longshot this week. Fox can become the eighth golfer to defend title at the tournament. That is highly doubtful. 

Fleetwood lost in a 2023 Canadian Open playoff to Canada's Taylor at Oakdale Golf & Country Club, also in the Toronto area. Fleetwood comes off a T-4 at the Memorial on Sunday in Ohio, his sixth top 10 of the year. He's one of five golfers with at least that many. Fitzpatrick tries to become the 13th golfer this century with at least four Tour wins in a season. He has a T-10, T-20 and missed cut in three career starts at this event, but this will be his first at TPC Toronto.

Burns is the third-favorite at +1325, highest of any American player in the field. It took until the fourth playoff hole last year, all played at No. 18, for Burns to lose to Fox. Burns had been tied for 16th after his 54 holes but shot a final-round 62 to become the second golfer to finish in the top two at the event after being outside the top 15 through 54 holes (Al Geiberger in 1963).

While Burns missed the cut at the 2023 Canadian Open, he was T-10 in 2024 and T-4 in 2022. He and McIlroy are the only golfers to finish in the top 10 in three of the past four stagings. Burns is +144 for a top-10 finish (I like that wager) and just finished T-4 on Sunday at the Memorial. He was the only player to shoot under par in all four rounds. Burns is the +700 favorite as top American this week. 

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The hottest U.S. player in the field is Wyndham Clark (+2450). He followed his win two weeks ago at the Byron Nelson in Texas by finishing third at the Memorial for his first back-to-back top-three finishes of the year after zero top-10s prior. Clark led the field in stroked gained tee-to-green at the Memorial and led the field in strokes gained putting at the Byron Nelson. Clark has five rounds of 67 or lower in his past two starts after three in his previous 11. Clark was T-59 at last year's Canadian Open and is +4000 to be leading after Round 1 this time. 

DraftKings has a cross-sport prop special on Clark for a Round 1 eagle and co-host USA to beat Paraguay in their World Cup opener on Friday at +1100. Canadian Adam Hadwin to finish in the top 20 and co-host Canada to beat Bosnia-Herzegovina in Friday WC action, also from Toronto, is priced +1100 as well. The site has several more golf/soccer specials.

The Canadian Open has been played annually since 1904, and the only longer continuous Tour events are the British Open (1860) and U.S. Open (1895). It is the second-oldest non-major on the Tour schedule behind the BMW Championship (1899). The top 60 players in the world rankings after this event qualify for the U.S. Open if they haven't already done so. That there is a second straight playoff is +330.