Second Thoughts: Don't Expect Denny Hamlin To Consider Signing Another Cup Deal

Will Denny Hamlin really retire from NASCAR Cup Series racing following the 2027 season?

Many are asking that question now that he has won for the third time this year and sits second in the series points standings. With how he's surging, Hamlin could catch his 23XI Racing driver Tyler Reddick for the regular-season title.

For many, the question would be why would Hamlin quit when he's on top?

For Denny, it seems like that is the right time to quit.

He’s seen drivers like Jimmie Johnson struggle and to a lesser extent, Martin Truex Jr., Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Kevin Harvick. None of them won in their final seasons. Johnson, a seven-time Cup champion, didn’t win in his final three years. 

Hamlin doesn’t want to go out that way.

He mentioned this on the Prime post-race show on Sunday:

"There are three things that happen. You lose your eyesight. You lose your reaction. And your body hurts. The body hurts are there. It’s there. During the week I am not recovering as quick. The other two things are sharp."

Are body aches enough to stop racing? Sure.

There is history in the sport of drivers quitting before many thought they would. Most notably was Ned Jarrett, who died last week at age 93. Jarrett retired because he had suffered a broken back and while he could have continued, he wanted to spend more time with his family. And he was age 34.

Hamlin is already 45 and turns 46 later this year. He is competing in his 21st full-time Cup season. He has competed in 735 races.

Gosh, after all that, maybe Hamlin is, dare I say, tired?

Hamlin certainly appears tired. However, the competitor in him won’t let him stop working if he is going to go race. Additionally, he admits he likes to be busy. But 21 seasons — and 22 next year — has to wear on a person.

And the incentive for Hamlin doesn’t appear to be there. 

As he said after Michigan, he is ninth (currently tied with Kyle Busch) in all-time wins at 63. In eighth is Dale Earnhardt at 76. Is he really going to be able to catch that? And even if he could, the next ones are Johnson and Cale Yarborough at 83.

That appears to matter to Hamlin when trying to cement himself in history to keep him working hard despite the pain. Or at least gives him a carrot to go after.

I don’t see him retiring from JGR and running a full season at 23XI Racing. Maybe an occasional one-off just to race in his equipment or to land a huge sponsor for one of his 23XI drivers or if there's a request for him to race. In those instances, he might view that as worth it to help his team. 

But the work he knows he needs to put in to race well is so immense, and the intensity it requires just isn’t there after a driver retires. Just ask Jeff Gordon, who came out of retirement to fill in for Dale Earnhardt Jr. in 2016.

Would Hamlin retire if he wins the Cup title this year? 

"I have a commitment to Joe [Gibbs] no matter what, whether we win this year or not," Hamlin said on Sunday.

Hamlin mentioned that commitment to me in January when I asked if he thought about not racing this year after the fire at his parents’ house where his father died.

If he’s going to continue with the commitment amid grief, he’ll continue with the commitment amid happiness.

"I told them just check with me in six months, check with me in six months," Hamlin said on Prime. "I don’t want to leave them in flux. They have a great driver in Brett Crews that is going to be ready more than likely by the end of next year. ... If it was right now, it would be really hard.

"But I find it hard to believe that we’re going to be at this level at this time next year."

Hamlin appears to be expecting the bottom to fall out. He’s seen it happen to his friends and former competitors. He wants to leave before it does.

And unless he can find something to make his body hurt less — a body that has endured significant injuries to his back, knee and shoulder — there doesn’t appear to be much that will change that.

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