Which World Cup teams are most vulnerable to an early exit? The danger facing U.S. and Mexico

The forgiving new format at this World Cup means that top teams are highly unlikely to be eliminated in the group stage, like Germany and Belgium were at the 2022 World Cup after finishing third in their groups.

The number of participants has expanded 50% to 48 teams, plus eight of the twelve third-place teams will advance to the knockout stage, so the group favorites would have to play far worse than expected against worse-than-before opposition to miss the Round of 32.

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Historically in 24-team FIFA tournaments, which have featured a similar format with half the teams, three points and a not-terrible goal difference usually got a team through. So a single win and no blowout losses were typically sufficient.

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With the giants getting at least one chance and maybe two at routing lesser opposition, the betting odds reflect the improbability of the group favorites going out early. Of the dozen seeded teams, eight are each -10000 to advance, and the other non-host seed (Netherlands) is -1400 to go through. One of these massive favorites could certainly miss the knockout rounds, but the unlikelihood leads me to focus on teams with a more realistic chance of premature elimination. Let’s look at the worst-case scenarios for these candidates with odds of -500 or shorter to advance, which should also be useful to keep in mind when you’re making predictions for Yahoo’s Soccer Pick ‘em with FOX One game.

Mexico (-1200 to advance from Group A)

United States (-1000 to advance from Group D)

Let’s start with two co-hosts that are favored to win their groups, but not by wide margins. Both Mexico and the U.S. are playing at home in groups without traditional powers. That’s the good news. The bad news is that both are in groups without a true bottom-tier team.

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The U.S. has played all three of its Group D opponents in the last year, losing 2-1 to Türkiye in June, coming from behind to beat Australia 2-1 in October, and topping Paraguay 2-1 in November. The Americans were the better team in both wins, but were hardly dominant, so a bounce or two could easily have flipped one or both matches. That would leave the U.S. with three or fewer points in this hypothetical group, firmly in danger of missing the knockout stage. Center back Chris Richards and defensive midfielder Tyler Adams have both battled injuries this season, and (heaven forbid) if one or both get hurt, the U.S. defense would have giant question marks.

Mexico’s route to an early exit is similar. El Tri opens with South Africa, the worst team in Group A, and anything but a win puts Mexico in immediate desperation mode. South Korea has plenty of dangerous attackers who could pick apart Mexico’s suspect and injury-riddled defense on the counter, as does Czechia with Leverkusen’s Patrik Schick and Lyon’s Pavel Šulc. Playing at home and at elevation, Mexico should still advance, but a nightmare scenario isn’t off the table.

Switzerland (-1400 to advance from Group B)

The Swiss are Group B favorites and rightfully so, as their classic consistency has carried them to the knockout stage at three straight World Cups. However, stalwart keeper Yann Sommer retired after EURO 2024, leaving Gregor Kobel as the No. 1 for the first time at a major tournament. While always steady, Switzerland is also rarely spectacular. In a balanced Group B with host Canada, a tough Bosnia and Herzegovina and a wild card in Qatar, few results would be shocking.

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Ecuador (-1600 to advance from Group E)

Ecuador is a popular sleeper pick for many, myself included, on the strength of its stellar defense, which allowed five goals in 18 CONMEBOL qualifiers this cycle. On the flip side, Ecuador scored a mere 14 goals in qualifying, and only 36-year-old Enner Valencia (six goals) scored more than twice. If the attack can’t get going, Ecuador could be in trouble against powerhouse Germany, a solid Ivory Coast and even CONCACAF Cinderella Curaçao.

Ivory Coast (-800 to advance from Group E)

If you prefer a different brand of disappointment in Group E, consider Ivory Coast. The case against the Elephants is more historical, as their golden generation never got out of the group stage in three tries from 2006 to 2014. This version of Ivory Coast doesn’t have the big names those teams had. The defense carried the team through qualifying, not allowing a goal in 10 matches. If/when that breaks down, can the Ivory Coast attack finally get going at a World Cup?

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Norway (-800 to advance from Group I)

Powered by two huge Premier League stars, Norway may have already outgrown the sleeper label, but will be a popular and easy-to-root-for pick to make a run. The upside is clear: Manchester City’s Erling Haaland scores goals; Arsenal’s Martin Ødegaard runs the midfield; and Norway gets rolling as in qualifying, when Norway won all eight games (including two vs. Italy) by a combined score of 37-5. But if Ødegaard gets hurt again, after playing only two-thirds of Premier League games this season, or Haaland can’t find room against the stout defense of France and Senegal, trouble may loom. I liken this Norway team to Poland from 2018, when Robert Lewandowski was arguably the world’s best striker, yet Poland went out in the group stage at its first World Cup in a dozen years. Norway hasn’t been at a major tournament since before Haaland was born, so who knows how this could go. It’s hard for me to see Iraq putting up a good fight against Norway, but as always, if advancing comes down to one game, anything can happen.

Croatia (-500 to advance from Group L)

The case for Croatia to be eliminated in the group stage is easy, and it’s essentially the same case many made at the 2022 World Cup. Luka Modrić can’t keep getting away with this, right? Now 40 years old, Modrić fractured a cheekbone in April and underwent surgery, but he should be on the field for Croatia. Beyond Modrić, half of Croatia’s other starters could be on the wrong side of 30, and they’ll be dealing with the travel and heat of a North American summer. In a loaded Group L with favorite England, dangerous Ghana and a potentially sneaky Panama, this could finally be the end of the line for Modrić and Croatia.

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Austria (-850 to advance from Group J)

Austria’s playing style will be familiar to anyone who’s watched a Red Bull team play over the past decade. When pressing high and attacking at pace is working, it’s a beautiful thing to watch and a terrifying thing to play against. When opponents solve the system, they exploit all the open space left by the pressing and carve up the tenuous midfield and back line. Argentina can of course do just that, and Algeria may have the wingers to do likewise against a high-risk, high-reward Austria team at its first World Cup since 1998.

Put your predictions to the test

Ready to put your World Cup knowledge to the test this summer? 2026 Soccer Pick ‘Em with FOX One is a new free-to-play Yahoo Fantasy game where fans make picks each round, earn points and climb the leaderboard.

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Play 2026 Soccer Pick 'Em with FOX One and make your picks for the world's biggest soccer tournament

There are plenty of ways to get in on the fun. You can play solo against the field, create a private group with friends for bragging rights, join a public group to play with other fans or take it up a notch and compete in a featured group against some of your favorite soccer analysts and media personalities — like the ones below!